NATO and Lithuania Defence, aid, Russian risk

Sep 29

At NATO Headquarters, Rutte welcomes Sinkevičius on his first visit as Lithuanian prime minister; both describe talks on collective defence, eastern-flank preparedness and Ukraine support. Rutte recalls Italian jets from Šiauliai downing a drone in Lithuanian airspace two weeks earlier. He promises stronger integrated air and missile defence, including Drone Edge and cheaper counter-drone capabilities, and praises the Rūdninkai training area and Lithuania's expected 5.38%-of-GDP core defence spending. Sinkevičius says Lithuania will remain in the 5% club next year despite government changes and that preparation for the German brigade's permanent deployment by the end of 2027 is on track. He thanks allies for Ankara decisions upgrading air policing to air defence and cites the interception as their practical application. Rutte cites Lithuania's annual military-assistance commitment of at least 0.25% of GDP, $38 million contributed to Ukraine's defence industry, joint production, energy support and locomotives. Sinkevičius recalls his recent Ukraine visit and talks with its prime minister about additional help ahead of a difficult energy winter. Both reaffirm Ukraine support. In response to LRT correspondent Milda Vilikanskytė's questions about sabotage, deterrence and warnings of decisive weeks or months, Rutte calls hybrid threats grey-zone tactics and says responses need not be public, symmetric or tit for tat. He recalls Baltic Sentry after Finland–Estonia cable damage, describing the damage as late 2025, and allies' action against Russia's shadow fleet. He estimates over 40,000 Russians killed or seriously wounded monthly and says Putin is willing to sacrifice up to 1.2 million people. He urges calm, continued defence investment and more Ukraine aid, citing the EU Ukraine Support Loan and a 10-billion PURL funding threshold for US supplies financed by European allies and Canada; he states no currency for that threshold. Asked by AFP's Olivier Baube about exaggerated fear, Sinkevičius says he sought intelligence proof of Russia preparing near-term action and there is none, while stressing that risk remains, threats must be communicated without exaggeration, and investment and unity must continue. Rutte acknowledges that grey-zone acts can cause harm, reaffirms response options, endorses attribution when allies are sure or almost sure Russia is responsible and applauds Estonia's attribution that day. He asks allies to share information with NATO, SHAPE and the Supreme Allied Commander's team for a complete picture. Threat assessments, loss estimates and responsibility claims remain attributed; the conference establishes no imminent attack, newly enacted budget, completed brigade deployment or new aid delivery.

Asked at the September 29 Brussels NATO conference whether fear of hybrid attacks could undermine Europe's confidence, Sinkevičius urges calm, continued defence investment and unity. He says he asked Rutte whether intelligence services had real proof that Russia was preparing near-term action and there is none, while stressing that risk remains and threats must be communicated without exaggerating what may happen in the coming weeks or months. Köppel later paraphrases this as no real evidence of an imminent Russian attack on NATO and uses it to accuse German politicians, including Agnes Strack-Zimmermann and Roderich Kiesewetter, of spreading lies. Those accusations and his characterization of Baltic attitudes remain commentary. The primary statement is an assessment of current evidence, not a guarantee against future attack or a finding that every warning is fabricated.