Höhne assesses CDU setback AfD government prospects

Sep 6

Interviewed by Philip Wortmann after the CDU conference, Benjamin Höhne describes a severe setback for Merz, contrasting his promise to halve AfD support with its growth. He discusses weak approval and internal distancing but doubts imminent chancellor replacement, including after the next elections, without a willing successor. He regards an AfD government enabled by BSW as likeliest, favors minority support over a coalition while noting policy overlap and internal BSW divisions, and leaves CDU defections or a difficult multi-party alternative possible. He warns against reducing the CDU's structural problems to leadership changes and calls possible ambitions of Sepp Müller speculation. He says federal politics provided little campaign help, Merz appearances were restricted, and the Haseloff-to-Schulze transition was too late to develop incumbency advantage; these assessments differ from Merz's full-support claim. Höhne sees a risk of weaker reform resolve but argues the coalition has resources and no alternative to necessary reforms. He predicts stronger party-profile competition and possible difficulties in Bundesrat and inter-state consensus coordination if AfD governs a state. He forecasts different federal effects on Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania because of their local candidates and conditions. These are analyses and conditional forecasts, not a replacement decision, completed government formation or upcoming election results.

The AfD wins Saxony-Anhalt's September 6 election but falls short of an outright parliamentary majority, taking 39 of 83 seats when 42 are required. ARD's October 4 retrospective gives fifteen CDU seats and five BSW seats and explains that the AfD needs support from other parties. The report describes pressure on Siegmund to govern despite missing his original majority goal. Schulze's interview adds his account of an unexpected CDU defeat, internal reorganization and the difficulty of moving into opposition after twenty-four years in government. A winner's seat lead does not establish an elected premier or agreed coalition. ZDF's September 7 broadcast in show 366 reports the same preceding-day result, says the CDU vote was more than halved and gives its share as 17.4 percent and BSW's as 5.3 percent. Merz calls the defeat the CDU's worst in decades and claims full federal campaign support. Schulze discusses federal-policy pressure, tactical second votes and previous non-voters; Höhne instead describes distance from Merz and a late leadership transition as campaign problems. These figures and differing explanations remain attributed, alongside ARD's later seat arithmetic and Schulze interview; no government formation is established.