Kan's October 4 poll Seats, inquiry and flying

Oct 4

Kan's complete polling coverage returns in three passages. On Flydubai, it reports 45% afraid of foreign airlines, 35% not afraid and 20% unsure; responsibility is assigned by 32% to Israel and 43% to the UAE. Regev receives 23% good and 66% poor ratings, differing from Likud voters' 54% good and 42% poor. On October 7, 63% favor a state inquiry, 18% a political inquiry, 6% none and 13% are unsure; coalition voters split 36%/35%. It reports 67% fear recurrence, and 54% attribute late hostage return to politics versus 25% security, with Gili Cohen retaining uncertainty about hypothetical earlier release. The seat projection gives Yashar 23, Likud 21, Bennett 12, Lieberman 9, Democrats, Otzma Yehudit, Shas, UTJ and Joint List eight each, Religious Zionism six, Ra'am five and Hendel–Zelekha four; Winter at about 2.5–2.6%, Gantz and new Haredi parties fall below threshold. Blocs are 52/51 with four uncommitted and thirteen Arab seats. Dudi Hasid and correspondents discuss threshold uncertainty, Arab turnout following Abu Shehadeh's reported exclusion and attacks over a Haddad video, emphasizing day-specific effects and the margin of error. Leadership preferences put Eisenkot ahead of Netanyahu 41%/38%, Netanyahu ahead of Bennett 40%/35%, and Eisenkot ahead of Bennett among opposition voters. These are projections and attributed analysis, not election results or newly established judicial decisions.

Kan reports 54% believe political considerations chiefly explain why all hostages were not returned sooner, 25% cite security considerations and 21% are unsure. Gili Cohen introduces the question with Nitzan Alon's reported weekend claim that they could have been released at least a year earlier, and says nearly all involved negotiators believe earlier release possible. She stresses that this is a counterfactual whose truth remains unknown and calls for negotiations to be examined by an inquiry. These are survey opinions and attributed assessments, not proof that an earlier agreement was available.