Fursenko's bioeconomy call Plan for scenarios and risks

Oct 5

Asked about forecasting amid uncertainty, Fursenko recalls a Valdai participant's estimate of about 47,000 Russian strategic documents and criticizes forecasts based only on extrapolation. He describes the bioeconomy as a science-based transdisciplinary platform, says different scenarios may fail to materialize, and urges analysis and changes of approach while preserving the goal. In the follow-up he calls this assessment of opportunities and risks, rather than a safety net, and wants experts to examine alternative routes to the goal. The earlier Valdai session is context, not a new occurrence in this recording.

At the October 5 strategy session, Fursenko urges science-based analysis of opportunities, risks and multiple routes to bioeconomy goals. He criticizes simple extrapolation, says scenarios may not materialize and advocates changing methods after analyzing deviations. His Valdai recollection is context; no new approved forecasting instrument or funding decision is announced.