Kovalchuk's budget review Forecast and debt risks

Oct 5

Kovalchuk presents the Accounts Chamber's preliminary assessment. He gives GDP growth assumptions of 0.6% in 2026, 1.4% in 2027 and 2.4% in 2029, domestic-demand and investment projections and four-percent inflation. He warns of prolonged tight monetary conditions, weaker exports and oil prices close to the revised $50 cutoff. He reports revenue of 43.3, 45.8 and 48.6 trillion rubles and spending of 48.7, 51 and nearly 54 trillion in 2027–2029, priority and national-project spending, debt service near ten percent of commitments, a 5.4-trillion or 2.2%-of-GDP 2027 deficit and debt reaching 68 trillion and 24.1% of GDP by 2029. Most of next year's 3.6-trillion transfers are not yet assigned to regions, unlike ninety-four-percent allocation at the prior hearing; he urges timely figures. Matviyenko praises the assessment. These preliminary figures do not normalize different amounts aired in earlier budget reports.

At the October 5 Federation Council budget hearing, Siluanov describes a resilient three-year draft with reduced oil dependence, controlled deficits and rising incomes. Kovalchuk presents the Accounts Chamber's preliminary fiscal and growth figures, including 48.7-trillion-ruble 2027 expenditure, 5.4-trillion deficit and rising debt, warning of export, oil and prolonged tight-money risks. Matviyenko expresses cautious optimism; Shirov favors gradual consolidation while seeking revised investment, debt and budget-rule mechanisms. These are attributed forecasts and assessments of the draft, not adoption or achieved growth.