Shirov assesses the draft Gradual fiscal consolidation

Oct 5

Shirov describes stabilization after cooling and waning fiscal stimulus. He calls the draft balanced and gradual consolidation its chief strength, considering government consumption, investment and household demand separately. He expects household consumption to grow faster than GDP, advocates better selection and monitoring of technology projects and rethinking domestic-debt financing and budget-rule mechanisms as the oil-and-gas share falls. He warns of impacts on regional tax bases and seeks broader federal support. Matviyenko welcomes academic input. These remain the economist's assessments and proposals.

At the October 5 Federation Council budget hearing, Siluanov describes a resilient three-year draft with reduced oil dependence, controlled deficits and rising incomes. Kovalchuk presents the Accounts Chamber's preliminary fiscal and growth figures, including 48.7-trillion-ruble 2027 expenditure, 5.4-trillion deficit and rising debt, warning of export, oil and prolonged tight-money risks. Matviyenko expresses cautious optimism; Shirov favors gradual consolidation while seeking revised investment, debt and budget-rule mechanisms. These are attributed forecasts and assessments of the draft, not adoption or achieved growth.