Kan's October 4 poll Seats, inquiry and flying

Oct 4

Kan's complete polling coverage returns in three passages. On Flydubai, it reports 45% afraid of foreign airlines, 35% not afraid and 20% unsure; responsibility is assigned by 32% to Israel and 43% to the UAE. Regev receives 23% good and 66% poor ratings, differing from Likud voters' 54% good and 42% poor. On October 7, 63% favor a state inquiry, 18% a political inquiry, 6% none and 13% are unsure; coalition voters split 36%/35%. It reports 67% fear recurrence, and 54% attribute late hostage return to politics versus 25% security, with Gili Cohen retaining uncertainty about hypothetical earlier release. The seat projection gives Yashar 23, Likud 21, Bennett 12, Lieberman 9, Democrats, Otzma Yehudit, Shas, UTJ and Joint List eight each, Religious Zionism six, Ra'am five and Hendel–Zelekha four; Winter at about 2.5–2.6%, Gantz and new Haredi parties fall below threshold. Blocs are 52/51 with four uncommitted and thirteen Arab seats. Dudi Hasid and correspondents discuss threshold uncertainty, Arab turnout following Abu Shehadeh's reported exclusion and attacks over a Haddad video, emphasizing day-specific effects and the margin of error. Leadership preferences put Eisenkot ahead of Netanyahu 41%/38%, Netanyahu ahead of Bennett 40%/35%, and Eisenkot ahead of Bennett among opposition voters. These are projections and attributed analysis, not election results or newly established judicial decisions.

Kan publishes its October 4 election projection: Yashar 23 seats, Likud 21, Bennett's party 12, Yisrael Beiteinu 9, and eight each to the Democrats, Otzma Yehudit, Shas, United Torah Judaism and the Joint List. Religious Zionism has six, Ra'am five and Hendel–Zelekha four; Winter's Amcha Yisrael is reported at 2.5–2.6 percent and Gantz below threshold. The original anchor assigns 52 seats to Netanyahu's bloc and 51 to Eisenkot's, with thirteen Arab-list seats and four uncommitted seats. Commentators stress polling error, day-specific campaign effects and uncertain turnout. Eisenkot leads Netanyahu 41–38 in suitability, Netanyahu leads Bennett 40–35, and opposition voters prefer Eisenkot 35–20 over Bennett. Kan's October 5 replay identifies this as yesterday's same poll, says Amcha Yisrael fell below threshold for the first time since launch and reports the party blaming coalition attacks while hoping for recovery. These are projections and attributed explanations, not voting results or proven campaign effects.