Warnings before October 7 Kan’s retrospective analysis

Date unknown

Kan’s Gili Cohen discusses reported Egyptian and Emirati warnings before October 7, a message attributed to Sinwar through Mohammed Dahlan, detected SIM-card activity and an October 1 policy meeting. She cites reporting in Haaretz, Yedioth Ahronoth and The Atlantic and argues for a commission of inquiry into shared assumptions and decision-making. The warnings’ reported existence and specificity, attributed messages and correspondent’s interpretation remain distinguished; the original warnings, policy meeting and later reporting retain separate event identities.

Citing Haaretz, Kan says UAE leader Mohammed bin Zayed warned Netanyahu before October 7 that the Palestinian arena was approaching an eruption. The exact warning date and detailed contents are not given. In the later exchange, Kan distinguishes general warnings from precise intelligence and recalls Netanyahu's claim that warnings of war did not concern Gaza. Kan's September 28 package recalls Haaretz's account of a call weeks before the attack, attributes to AP Netanyahu's attempt to obtain an Emirati denial during his Abu Dhabi visit, and airs a journalist's insistence that the call was checked over eighteen months. The visit account and denial request do not prove the original warning. In a separate full analysis, Roi Sharon argues that both political and security leaders were trapped in assumptions about Hamas and might have disregarded even another alert. That counterfactual is his assessment, not a finding about what would necessarily have happened.